Mumbai: Tehran has moved a step closer to escalating global tensions after Iran’s Parliament on Sunday approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route. The decision comes in the wake of US airstrikes on three of Iran’s key nuclear facilities, marking a dangerous turn in the ongoing conflict. According to Iranian state media, the final decision now rests with the Supreme National Security Council, Iran’s top security body.
What Is at Stake?
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital maritime chokepoint through which one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and one-third of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass. Located between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, the narrow waterway connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. At its tightest point, it is just 33 kilometers wide, with designated shipping lanes only 3 km wide in each direction—making it highly vulnerable to blockade or attack.
A Global Flashpoint
Until now, most analysts believed Iran would avoid shutting the Strait, knowing the severe economic and diplomatic fallout such an action could trigger. However, the US airstrikes—reportedly involving advanced B-2 bombers targeting nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan—appear to have pushed Tehran to reconsider its restraint.
How India Could Be Affected
According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), nearly 84% of crude oil and 83% of LNG that moved through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024 were destined for Asian markets, including India, China, Japan, and South Korea. These four countries alone accounted for nearly 69% of total oil and condensate transported through the strait.
India, although it also imports oil from Russia, the US, Latin America, and Africa, is still heavily reliant on oil from Gulf nations like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. A blockade or major disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to:
- Significant price spikes in crude oil and natural gas.
- Supply chain delays and increased shipping costs.
- Ripple effects on inflation and overall economic stability.
Moreover, should China, a major importer of Iranian oil, turn to alternate suppliers in response to a prolonged disruption, global demand pressure could escalate, driving prices even higher.
A Global Crisis in the Making?
The Strait of Hormuz has long been a geopolitical flashpoint, but rarely has the risk of actual closure felt so immediate. With tensions rising in the Middle East, the international community is watching closely. A formal closure by Iran would likely draw in further global responses and may risk spiraling into a broader economic and military conflict.
As of now, diplomatic backchannels are reportedly active, with several nations urging restraint and de-escalation.
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